Abiy Ahmed was sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia during a ceremony on Monday afternoon. This comes as clashes in the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia have sharply escalated.
Ethiopia's Desire for Access to the Red Sea
During the ceremony, Abiy emphasized his determination to secure direct access for Ethiopia to the Red Sea, stating: "Based on the principle of exchange, we will strive to ensure Ethiopia has access to the sea." These remarks could heighten tensions with neighboring Eritrea, as the two countries are at odds over control of the Eritrean port of Assab.
Challenges Facing Abiy Ahmed
According to experts, Abiy Ahmed faces complex internal and regional challenges that may hinder his ability to translate political power into lasting stability. A recent meeting of Ethiopian opposition countries in Cairo, which Ethiopia did not attend, is an example of the challenges the Abiy government is facing.
Analysts believe that Eritrea is facing an imminent threat of war due to Ethiopia's ambitions to control the Assab port. Abdurrahman Said, an analyst at the Horn of Africa Regional Integration Center, stated: "Eritrea is deeply concerned about Ethiopia's intentions to occupy this port, which is of high commercial and strategic importance."
Last week, Ethiopia severed diplomatic relations with Eritrea and Egypt. This move may indicate the Ethiopian government's determination to achieve access to the Red Sea port through force. Recent clashes in Tigray and the control of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces over the Tigray center, Mekelle, have intensified these concerns.
Potential for War Expansion
Abdurrahman Said added that the people of Tigray have cultural and religious ties with individuals in southern Eritrea, and there is a possibility that the war could spread to Eritrea. He also pointed to Ethiopian military movements toward the Eritrean border and the activities of the Tigray People's Liberation Front, which could lead to new conflicts.
While global actors have remained silent on this issue, some, like Abdurrahman Said, have welcomed a recent U.S. statement to revive diplomatic efforts. Ethiopia's access to Djibouti, a neighboring country with which it has good relations, could be a decisive factor in future developments.
