A new report from an American think tank has proposed a significant reduction of U.S. military forces in the Pacific, raising considerable concerns among the country’s allies. This report was prepared by Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior researcher and director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities Foundation. Kavanagh calls for a reduction of U.S. defense commitments in the region and an end to mutual defense treaties with South Korea, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines.
Transformation in U.S. Defense Policy
Kavanagh emphasizes that Washington's priority should be the defense of the U.S. mainland and maintaining access to key markets and trade routes. She believes that this goal can be better achieved by reducing forces from the "first island chain," which extends from southern Okinawa, Japan, through Taiwan, to the Philippines.
She also suggests that U.S. forces be moved to the "second island chain," which extends from eastern Japan to the Northern Mariana Islands in the central Pacific, Guam, Palau, and down to Papua New Guinea. This reduction in forces would make U.S. positions easier to defend and reduce the "risk of catastrophic war with China."
Potential Consequences of Troop Withdrawal
This reduction in military presence could have profound impacts on Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway province. Kavanagh notes in her report that the U.S. has no formal commitment to assist Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack, and any military conflict would come at a "significant cost to the United States." She points out that "given this cost-benefit calculation, a shift in U.S. commitment to Taiwan seems prudent."
This report comes amid broader concerns about the sustainability of U.S. security commitments in Asia. Analysts believe that a reduction in U.S. support in the region could allow China to swiftly seize Taiwan and that a nuclear North Korea could make greater demands on South Korea. Additionally, this action would likely lead to increased defense spending regionally and ultimately create a gap in non-proliferation efforts.
