Researchers have recently announced that the El Niño phenomenon could lead to approximately 451,000 excess deaths globally from June 2026 to February 2027. El Niño, which means "the little boy," gets its name from Peruvian fishermen who noticed a sudden drop in the fish they needed due to warm waters in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas time.
Global Impacts of El Niño
This climatic phenomenon can alter temperature and precipitation patterns across the globe, bringing extreme heat and drought to some areas while causing rain and flooding in others. Tamara Carlton, head of research at the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago, stated that land temperatures are expected to be about 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months.
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Carlton added that these temperature conditions are equivalent to the heat that climate change is expected to gradually bring about over the next 20 years. Typically, winds in the Pacific direct high temperatures towards Asia and Australia, bringing cooler waters to the surface near South America. However, during El Niño, these winds weaken, resulting in less cold water surfacing and a larger portion of the Pacific Ocean remaining unusually warm.
Serious Effects on Public Health
High water temperatures cause the air above to warm, enhancing precipitation in the central and eastern Pacific. This phenomenon can lead to waterborne diseases and shortages of water and food. The estimate of 451,000 excess deaths includes only those deaths directly related to health effects from high temperatures, excluding deaths from indirect effects such as flooding and drought.
Researchers expect the highest increase in mortality to occur in the Sahel, South and Southeast Asia, and some Latin American countries such as Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, Chad, India, Indonesia, and Brazil. Many of these deaths are predicted to occur between December and February, meaning that a significant portion of the anticipated toll is still ahead.
Carlton noted that media attention is usually focused on the impacts of extreme heat in Europe and North America, but the effects of this phenomenon are primarily observed in lower-income, warmer countries where people have the least resources to adapt, and these deaths are less likely to be recorded in official statistics.
Researchers believe that targeted interventions could save tens of thousands of lives. Carlton warns that this El Niño gives us a glimpse into the climate of the 2040s, and we must prepare for heat resulting from climate change.
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