Germany's population is projected to decrease from 83.5 million to around 81.8 million by 2045. This is the result of a new study from the Berlin Institute for Population and Development conducted in collaboration with the Wüstenrot Foundation.
Demographic and Economic Challenges
The decline in population is not the only main challenge. A greater challenge is the continuous increase in the number of retirees alongside a shrinking workforce. The employed population in Germany is expected to decrease by 4.7 percent by 2045.
Katrina Hines, the head of the institute, stated in the presentation of this study: "The baby boomer generation is retiring while smaller generations are entering the labor market. The birth rate is declining, and immigration cannot compensate for the excess deaths over births."
Regional Differences in Population Decline
Although Germany's population is declining, this trend is not uniform across the country. According to this study, the economic attractiveness of a region and its financial strength will become increasingly important in the coming years. Some regions will face significant declines in the number of residents and workforce, while others will continue to grow.
Hines added: "Demographic changes are clearly occurring, and their effects are felt across the country. While their consequences can be mitigated, they cannot be prevented. The longer we wait, the narrower our range of actions will become."
Frederik Sihthus from the Berlin Institute also pointed out that nearly every region is now recording more deaths than births, a result of decades of low birth rates. Immigration, both internal and external, is now shaping the demographic path of a region. In recent decades, immigration from abroad has gradually helped stabilize demographic trends, but immigration alone cannot prevent the aging of society.
According to this study, several vital factors are necessary for a region to remain attractive to people moving from outside or other parts of Germany. These factors include high-quality jobs, favorable working conditions, sufficient skilled labor supply for local businesses, strong financial municipalities, reliable childcare, and effective transportation infrastructure.
According to Manuel Slapina from the Wüstenrot Foundation, many large cities will continue to grow in the coming years. The population of Berlin is expected to increase by nearly 10 percent by 2045. Other cities expected to attract people include Hamburg, Frankfurt, Munich, and Düsseldorf in western Germany, as well as Leipzig, Dresden, and Potsdam in the east.
The authors of the study state that the traditional distinction between urban and rural areas is not universally valid. Suburban areas of many large cities are also expected to grow. While young people are drawn to urban centers, families with children tend to settle in surrounding areas. Among the places likely to lose population are several large cities in western Germany, including Bremen, Duisburg, Dortmund, and Kaiserslautern, whose economic attractiveness has gradually diminished.
Twelve of the twenty regions and independent cities with the weakest evaluations are now located in eastern Germany. These areas are also expected to experience severe declines in their working population, with reductions of up to 18 percent by 2045. The authors conclude that competition for labor will become one of the key demographic challenges in the coming decades.
In this competition, southern German states, including Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, are recognized as having the best prospects. Bavaria, in particular, ranks highly due to its strong economy, which thrives in many parts of the state, and its robust labor market. Additionally, women, older individuals, and those without German citizenship are more likely to be employed in Bavaria.
According to the German constitution, the country is committed to ensuring that individuals have equal opportunities and providing them with a good quality of life, regardless of where they live.
Researchers offer clear recommendations to policymakers. They emphasize that the focus should be on addressing structural challenges and regional inequalities. "What may be the right answer for a growing large city is not necessarily correct for a declining rural area."
The message is clear: regions must allow themselves to shape their own future.
