Germany's population is projected to decrease from 83.5 million in 2025 to around 81.8 million by 2045. This forecast is based on a new study from the Berlin Institute for Population and Development (Berlin-Institut für Bevölkerung und Entwicklung) in collaboration with the Wüstenrot Foundation.
Demographic and Economic Challenges
The decline in population is not the only main challenge; the increasing number of retirees alongside a shrinking workforce is particularly concerning. It is expected that the working-age population in Germany will decrease by 4.7 percent by 2045. Katharina Heinz, the head of the institute, stated during the presentation of this study in Berlin: "The baby boomer generation is retiring, and smaller generations are entering the labor market. The birth rate has declined, and immigration alone cannot compensate for the excess of deaths over births."
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Regional Differences in Demographic Changes
The study shows that this trend of population decline in Germany is not uniform. The economic attractiveness of a region and its financial strength will become increasingly important in the future. Heinz added: "Some regions will lose significant population and workforce in the coming years, while others will continue to grow." In this context, the competition to attract workers will become one of the key demographic challenges in the coming decades.
According to Manuel Slopina from the Wüstenrot Foundation, some large cities will continue to grow in the coming years. Berlin is expected to lead this trend, with its population projected to increase by nearly 10 percent by 2045. Other cities like Hamburg, Frankfurt, Munich, and Dresden are also on this list.
The study also shows that many suburban areas of large cities will continue to grow, while some large cities in Western Germany, such as Bremen and Duisburg, are losing population due to decreased economic attractiveness. Currently, twelve out of the twenty regions with the lowest scores are located in Eastern Germany.
Researchers recommend that authorities focus on structural challenges and regional inequalities, proposing solutions tailored to local conditions.
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