Fighting in the Tigray region of Ethiopia has resumed. Tigrayan forces launched a major attack on September 23, and reports of clashes have also emerged in neighboring Afar and Amhara regions.
Threat to Regional Peace
This escalation of fighting threatens the fragile peace established by the Pretoria peace agreement in 2022. This agreement ended the previous war between the Ethiopian federal government in Addis Ababa and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).
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However, the main question goes beyond the return of war to Tigray: Can this conflict connect with the existing wars and rivalries in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea?
Analysts and Regional Risks
Martin Plaut, a British journalist and Horn of Africa expert, believes that this conflict could spread to neighboring countries. He points out that if this conflict extends beyond Ethiopia's borders, it may lead to clashes with Sudanese forces, which could drag the entire region into war.
Jalale Getcho Birru, a senior East Africa analyst at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), also emphasizes that this conflict cannot be examined in isolation and involves neighboring countries as well.
The African Union (AU) has also expressed its deep concern about the potential for further instability. Moussa Faki Mahamat, the Chairperson of the AU Commission, warned on September 23 that these conflicts could reverse the progress made since 2020.
Economic Consequences
The fighting in the Afar region, which borders Eritrea and Djibouti, is particularly significant. This area includes the main transport corridor connecting Ethiopia to Djibouti, and thus the continuation of fighting could threaten a vital economic pipeline.
Ultimately, Plaut warns that if Ethiopia and Eritrea engage in direct conflict, rival Sudanese forces may exploit this new situation. This could lead to a chain of sequential reactions resulting in further conflicts in the region.
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