James Talarico has recently achieved what no other Democrat in Texas has done in three decades: winning a statewide race.
Talarico easily secured the result by defeating Ken Paxton, with news outlets announcing the result on Tuesday evening. This victory marks the end of one of the longest winning streaks in U.S. politics. Talarico is the first Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas since 1994 and also the first Democrat elected by the people of Texas as a senator since 1988.
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Election Developments and Their Impact on Democrats
Most polls leading up to Election Day showed that Talarico, a state legislator and theology student, was ahead of Paxton, the attorney general facing legal troubles. With over 7.7 million votes cast before Election Day, attention to this race in Texas and across the country was very high.
For many Texas Democrats, Talarico's victory affirms a long-held belief that demographics in the state are decisive. Democrats have long claimed that Texas is not as Republican as election results suggest and that with the right candidate and message, a Democrat can win in a state with a large number of indirect voters. This cycle proved they were right, as early voting numbers aligned with turnout statistics in the 2024 presidential election and exceeded the 5.1 million votes cast in the 2022 election.
Talarico's Role in Electoral Success
Talarico certainly played a central role in this historic moment. A plain-spoken speaker and a Teach For America graduate, his message was a blend of progressive optimism and religious preaching. He sought to build an unexpected coalition that included individuals who had reliably voted for Republicans in the past. With the release of clips of his speeches and interviews, he quickly became a political star with a national following and one of the best fundraisers of this cycle.
Both Ken Paxton and Talarico competed in a costly primary election for their party's nomination. Advertising costs in this race approached $750 million. Outside spending also included $534 million in advertising, where Paxton had a two-to-one advantage. A significant portion of this funding came from Elon Musk, the world's richest person and a Texas resident, who funneled $224 million to support Paxton. These significant expenditures ultimately proved fruitless.
Republicans never found a way to combat Talarico. Donald Trump dubbed him "Talafrico," a nickname that Talarico's campaign embraced and turned into campaign merchandise. Persistent rumors that he is vegan, in a meat-loving Texas, circulated, but photos of Talarico eating barbecue quickly dispelled those rumors. In the final days of the race, no one but Vice President J.D. Vance made a blunt joke suggesting that Talarico is gay, which he is not.
While Talarico sought to expand the circle of Democrats, Paxton focused almost entirely on rallying his base and leveraged Trump's support, which created a rift with party leaders in Texas and Washington, endorsing Paxton instead of the current Republican senator, John Cornyn.
Republican strategists emphasized that Cornyn was in a stronger position to hold the seat, especially due to concerns about a blue wave in the midterm elections. There were also worries that Paxton might not be able to raise enough funds to compete with Talarico.
Trump initially refrained from endorsing either Cornyn or Paxton in this race. After the primary competition went to a runoff in May, he officially endorsed Paxton, leading to the effective end of Cornyn's political career. Republicans were so concerned about holding the Texas seat that they held an unusual midterm political conference in the state to bolster their base.
Even after endorsing Paxton, Trump's support for the candidate was erratic. In speeches, he oscillated between supporting Paxton and criticizing his popularity and appearance.
Paxton faced a clear message in this race. His tenure as attorney general, once seen as a strength among a base interested in his battles against Democratic agencies, became a liability as corruption allegations arose due to his increased wealth during public service. He also refused to debate Talarico, who pressed for such an event, even suggesting that Fox News manage it.
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