The fate of Congress depends on the results of several key races that will determine which party will control the House of Representatives and the Senate until the end of Donald Trump's presidency.
Current Status of Congress
Republicans currently hold control of both chambers, with 53 seats in the Senate and 218 seats in the House of Representatives. History shows that Democrats usually gain seats during these periods, as the ruling party typically loses representation in midterm elections. In 2022, Democrats under Joe Biden lost 9 seats in the House, and in 2018, during Trump's first term, Republicans lost about 40 seats in the House of Representatives.
Key Races in the November 3 Election
Democrats are expected to gain enough seats in the House to take control of it. The Senate, however, is in an uncertain state, with several races in red states that Trump won in 2024 being highly competitive. Campaign spending, including contributions from super PACs and billionaire donors, has reached hundreds of millions of dollars for several races.
In Alaska, Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is competing against Democrat Mary Peltola, who previously became the first Native Alaskan to reach Congress. Sullivan and Peltola are close in the polls. Additionally, Alaska uses a ranked-choice voting system that allows voters to rank their preferred candidates.
In Iowa, the competition between Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic Representative Josh Turk, a Paralympic champion, is highly competitive. This state was also won by Trump in 2024 by 13 points, but polls indicate a close race.
In Michigan, Abolfazl Al-Sayed, a physician and former public health director, is competing against Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent. This race may be one of the toughest contests in the midterm elections. Polls show that Al-Sayed is currently leading, but remains within the margin of error.
Senator Susan Collins from Maine, who is seeking a sixth term, is competing against Democrat Troy Jackson, who has a history of Senate leadership in Maine. This race is also considered very close and unpredictable.
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