Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda announced that the likelihood of a large-scale Russian attack on NATO territory is currently low, but he expects Vladimir Putin's provocations to continue. Nausėda said in an interview, "I don't think Russia is currently ready for large-scale operations." He explained that Russian resources are engaged on the battlefield in Ukraine and have not achieved success in this regard.
Russia Testing NATO's Resolve
Nausėda added, "Putin is testing us and gradually approaching Article 5, NATO's collective defense commitment." According to him, the Russians want to see how NATO responds to hybrid attacks, which include air incursions, cyberattacks, and arson.
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He also emphasized that hybrid warfare will continue, not only in NATO's eastern flank but also in other countries including Germany and Denmark. Nausėda stated, "Russia is testing our resolve and wants to see if we will respond collectively when specific red lines are crossed."
Prospects for Peace Negotiations with Russia
Nausėda, who has led Lithuania since 2019, also sees no signs of serious willingness from Moscow to enter negotiations to end the war in Ukraine before next spring. He said, "Moscow will use the winter months to increase pressure on Ukraine through airstrikes on cities." Nausėda added, "The Russians are only superficially seeking negotiations. I do not trust them."
He also predicted that Putin will initially present demands that are unacceptable to Ukraine. Nausėda said, "If Ukraine gets through this winter, and I am confident it will, the chances for serious negotiations will increase in 2027. I do not expect these negotiations to happen any sooner."
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