President Donald Trump is facing escalating tensions in his relations with Iran, which has become a political issue for his administration. Following recent US attacks on Iran on September 8, Trump has explicitly stated that he does not intend to attack Iran before the midterm elections in November and has promised to end these tensions afterward.
New attack options and Iran's threats
However, reports have emerged indicating that US and Israeli military planners have designed new options for attacking Iran, including the use of the largest non-nuclear weapon in the US arsenal, the GBU-43/B, known as the "Mother of All Bombs." The targets of these attacks are likely to be Iran's nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure, although there are doubts about the bomb's ability to penetrate Iran's deepest facilities.
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Trump appears to be seeking an attack that can be presented as a military victory and then end the war without appearing to have retreated. However, this approach carries the risk of igniting a wider war than Washington intends. Tehran is unlikely to allow Washington to quickly end these tensions and may preemptively act if it fears an attack from the US.
Infrastructure facilities and new threats
Alongside military planning, Iran has increasingly ramped up its maritime attacks. Two cargo ships belonging to the UAE, GFS Pride and Cape Dao, have been targeted in the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic efforts have also reached a deadlock; Trump rejected Tehran's proposal to end hostilities and lift sanctions in late September, emphasizing that Iran must take action regarding its nuclear program.
The timing of any potential US and Israeli attacks remains unclear. While Trump has stated that he will not continue attacks before the elections, Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, has sought to resume hostilities before his own elections. The goals of the Americans and Israelis may differ, with Trump seeking a significant military victory that he can present as a political success.
Iran is preparing for every scenario and has raised threats of widespread attacks on the region's energy and economic infrastructure. Hossein Mohibi, a spokesman for the Revolutionary Guard, stated that Iran "will not stop until the United States is out of the region."
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