NATO countries are preparing for the worst-case scenarios ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. NATO diplomats have expressed concern that a potential Republican defeat could motivate President Donald Trump to significantly increase his attacks on the alliance.
Concerns about Trump's legacy
These diplomats, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, explained that if Trump is constrained by Congress in domestic affairs, he may seek to bolster his legacy in foreign affairs as Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. military. This could mean the withdrawal of thousands of American troops from Europe.
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One senior European defense official said, "Typically, what happens to presidents during a lame-duck period is a combination of expressing dissatisfaction and adventurism in foreign policy." According to him, attacking NATO seems to be part of Trump's worldview.
Election consequences and changes at the Pentagon
While Democrats are expected to take control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate, polls indicate that Trump's popularity has reached its lowest point in history. These concerns also highlight the growing transatlantic tensions, especially after the Starlink satellite services were cut off for Ukraine and Trump's renewed closeness to Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia.
NATO diplomats warn that if Trump becomes extremely angry, he may take drastic actions. Upcoming reviews of American forces in Europe, expected to be released by December, could influence the scope of these decisions.
Trump may decide to tie the continuation of America's presence in Europe to the acceptance of a peace agreement supported by the United States in Ukraine. This could severely jeopardize Europe's security situation.
Additionally, a major electoral defeat for the Republicans could bring significant changes at the Pentagon. Peter Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, has become an unpopular figure in Congress due to his failure to provide regular reports on budget and operations to lawmakers. This unpopularity could lead to his potential departure from office following an electoral defeat.
If Hegseth resigns, transitions at the Pentagon may occur that could delay decisions regarding the withdrawal of American forces from Europe.
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