On September 23, clashes in the Tigray region of Ethiopia significantly intensified. Tigray forces captured three local airports, and the conflict spread to neighboring Afar and Amhara regions.
Both sides have accused each other of instigating this escalation. These fresh clashes pose a serious challenge to the Pretoria peace agreement of 2022, which had ended the previous Tigray war.
Eritrea's Role in Regional Crises
In this context, Eritrea becomes a key factor. Martin Plaut, a British journalist specializing in the Horn of Africa, believes that the United States needs Eritrea to secure the Red Sea against the Houthis, a Shia militia backed by Iran.
Plaut argues that lifting sanctions gives new political weight to repressive regimes in Africa, including Eritrea. With the resumption of fighting in Tigray, Eritrea could once again become a decisive military player.
Geopolitical Changes and Their Impacts
The rise in tensions in Tigray occurred just days after Washington removed several key Eritrean entities and individuals from its sanctions list. On September 18, the United States allowed the national emergency related to Ethiopia sanctions to expire, and several Eritrean individuals and entities were removed from the sanctions list.
According to U.S. officials, this action does not signify a recognition of Eritrea, and Washington has not publicly stated that an agreement has been made with Isaias Afwerki, the President of Eritrea. However, this decision reduces pressure on a government whose strategic importance is increasing in the security context of the Red Sea.
The recent clashes stem from the formation of a coalition of seven armed and political groups in Ethiopia aimed at overthrowing the Abiy Ahmed government. This coalition includes the Tigray People's Liberation Front and other groups that were previously on opposing sides of the Tigray war.
Given the current situation, Eritrea may find direct security interests for intervention if the fighting in Tigray escalates. This conflict could turn into an inter-state confrontation.
