Sinan Selen, head of Germany's domestic intelligence agency, described Russia's threats against Germany and other European countries as "a long-term hybrid attack" and added that this threat will not be easily resolved. According to him, even if the war in Ukraine ends, the threat from Russia will continue, aiming to change the map of Europe and redefine its role in global politics.
Continued Threats from Russia
Selen emphasized that this threat is not limited to Ukraine and that the Baltic countries, Poland, and Germany will also be affected. Alexander Dobrindt, Germany's Interior Minister, described the threat situation as "our country is not at war, but we are the daily target of hybrid warfare." He added that Russia's goal is not to defeat Germany militarily, but to dominate us politically and socially.
Security Concerns and Consequences
Security experts are concerned that Russia may not limit itself to political and social influence. Carlo Masala, a political scientist, told the political talk show "Mayesberger" last year that "Russia is preparing for a major war." He emphasized that he is not only referring to cyber warfare. Carsten Breuer, Inspector General of the German Armed Forces, agrees with this view.
Currently, Russia is engaged in its war in Ukraine, and according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, there is no immediate military threat against NATO territory. However, military experts, European intelligence agencies, and the German Ministry of Defense state that by 2029, Russia will have sufficient forces and equipment for conventional warfare against NATO. The Russian defense industry is working at full speed, and Moscow plans to expand its armed forces to 1.5 million soldiers.
Stefan Meister, an Eastern Europe expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, believes that Russia currently has no interest in direct military conflict with NATO and wants to test its capabilities.
An example of Russia's hybrid warfare could be the unsuccessful attack with an explosive drone on a Ukrainian transport aircraft at Leipzig-Halle Airport. Immediately after this incident, the German government announced that it was confident that Russia was behind this attack.
In light of these threats, Germany is rapidly modernizing its armed forces through significant investments, but is facing challenges in finding enough personnel to expand its program. Many young Germans have taken to the streets to protest against the revival of conscription. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has faced intra-party criticism for stating that Germany must be "capable of war." Many consider this statement to be overly militaristic.
Is Germany ready for a military threat? Meister believes that "Germany is not prepared either militarily or civically, and the population is not mentally prepared either."
