The ongoing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have turned into a cycle of escalating conflict. Frequent border clashes have affected the relations between Islamabad and Kabul.
Beginning of the Tensions
This new round of tensions began in February 2026 when Pakistan started airstrikes on Taliban positions in Afghanistan. In March, the Pakistani Defense Minister announced that the country was in a state of "open war" with Afghanistan. These conflicts continued, with the latest Pakistani attacks on Taliban positions reported in early October.
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Diplomatic Opportunities for India
Shantia Marie de Souza, an Afghanistan expert, says that these conflicts could provide an important diplomatic and strategic opportunity for India. She stated that these tensions have weakened Pakistan's influence in Kabul and encouraged the Taliban to expand foreign relations.
De Souza suggests that India could respond to this situation by expanding diplomatic engagement, humanitarian aid, development projects, and trade. However, she emphasizes that there is no ideological alignment between India and the Taliban.
Asok Sinha, former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, warns that this conflict should not be viewed merely as an opportunity for India to exploit Pakistan. He stresses that the core issues are not significantly related to India, and India is not seeking strategic advantage from this conflict.
Gautam Mukhopadhya, former Indian ambassador, also believes that tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban could provide an opportunity for India to regain some of the ground it lost in 2021.
India has revived air links between Kabul and Delhi, as well as Kabul and Amritsar, since December 2025. Bilateral trade between India and Afghanistan was around $908 million in the 2025-26 fiscal year, while trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan has significantly decreased due to border closures.
On October 14, the Taliban's Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, emphasized the importance of relations with India during a meeting with an Indian representative, indicating that Kabul is interested in expanding economic cooperation.
However, India cannot easily replace Pakistan as an alternative transit route and must continue to utilize the Chabahar port in Iran to improve access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
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