The European Union and Canada are planning to strengthen their partnerships as Donald Trump is engaged in the U.S. midterm elections. Both sides hope to advance broader agreements during this opportunity and capitalize on Trump's involvement in the election campaigns.
Strategy to Enhance Cooperation
This strategy involves pushing for greater cooperation and optimizing relations between the two parties. Four EU officials and two Canadian diplomats, who are in preparation for this week's summit in Montreal, have shared this information. Trump, whose Republican Party is trying to maintain control of Congress in next week's midterm elections, has called the EU's proposal for Canada to join as an associate member "ridiculous" and threatened that "heavy tariffs" will be imposed if the two sides establish close relations.
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The Montreal Summit and Its Implications
The upcoming summit is seen as a strong statement. Mark Camilleri, President of the Canada-European Union Business and Investment Association, emphasized that this summit is not intended to be a simple meeting. Canada is also trying to act before political changes occur in Europe. Ottawa is seeking changes in this partnership that extend beyond the Trump presidency and Marine Le Pen. Le Pen, the leader of the National Rally party in France, is leading in the polls and has heavily criticized the EU-Canada trade agreement (CETA).
In her speech in September, Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that the EU-Canada alliance is "not against anyone." However, officials acknowledge that strengthening this alliance may provoke retaliatory reactions from Trump. Von der Leyen, Carney, and Claudio Castagnetti are all aware that "the eyes of the world are upon them."
Europeans and Canadians know that "America is watching." One senior EU official added that, nevertheless, the bloc and Canada are generally continuing their work and striving to establish broader relations with Ottawa.
Challenges Ahead
Another possibility is that the summit may end with only nice images and no real substance. Another senior official stated that this issue is unlikely to "provoke" Trump's reaction. European capitals, EU institutions, and Canadian provinces are all waiting to see what agreement von der Leyen and Carney will reach in their meeting. Predicting Trump's reaction is also impossible.
This pressure on Ottawa also comes from another side: the European election calendar and the rise of the far-right. With elections in Spain, France, Poland, and Italy next year, Canadian officials want to secure tangible achievements before priorities shift and the political balance is disrupted.
Carney visited Strasbourg in September to present his vision for a closer union and faced negative reactions from far-right representative Sigbert Drouze. However, the French presidential election in April and the possibility of Le Pen's victory is what raises the most concern.
A Canadian diplomat said, "Fortunately, we are holding this summit now and not in six months," referring to the date of the French elections. Canada is seeking significant and structural changes in its relations with the EU to remain sustainable beyond the Trump and Le Pen eras. Carney is well aware of the rarity and urgency of this moment and does not want to leave the summit without securing major victories.
Another question is whether Brussels and Ottawa can elevate their partnership without ultimately incurring the wrath of the U.S. President. The midterm elections may buy them some time, but this voting will not keep Trump occupied forever. A Canadian diplomat warned that Trump may become even more dangerous and vengeful towards the EU and Canada after the elections.
Mark Camilleri said, "At the end of the day, his reaction could be anything. We can only control what we can control."
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