Donald Trump, the former President of the United States, has officially supported Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, describing him as "a great warrior prime minister and an even greater partner for peace." This support is expressed at a time when Netanyahu is facing serious challenges ahead of the Knesset elections.
Trump's Positions and the Electoral Situation in Israel
In this message, Trump referred to the ongoing conflicts and claimed that "Iran has been systematically destroyed both militarily and financially." He also warned that if Iran does not change its ways, the U.S. will soon "finish the job." This official support from Trump comes as polls show the opposition coalition led by Gadi Eisenkot has surpassed Netanyahu's Likud party with 52 seats compared to 51 seats, and neither side has achieved an absolute majority in the parliament.
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The Implications of Trump's Support for Netanyahu
Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank in London, pointed to the political significance of this support, stating that it allows Netanyahu to claim that his presence is irreplaceable for maintaining vital relations between Tel Aviv and Washington. However, Vakil warned that the electoral impact of this statement should not be overstated. According to her, Israeli voters are divided over Netanyahu's leadership and the outcomes of the war with Iran, and this announcement cannot resolve deep doubts about his record.
Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King's College London’s Department of Security Studies, described this action as "a political gift" to Netanyahu's pressured campaign, noting that Netanyahu's problems are structural and involve a rift among right-wing parties and significant discontent among the Haredim.
Tensions and War with Iran
A significant portion of Trump's statement focused on the war with Iran. A conflict that began last winter with a joint U.S. and Israeli invasion and has now reached a stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz. Following Iranian missile and drone attacks on violating ships, the price of Brent crude oil reached $107.57 per barrel. Additionally, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister, responded to Trump's and Netanyahu's threats, stating that the offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under certain conditions is still on the table.
Andreas Krieg believes that by supporting Netanyahu, Trump is looking to exploit the tool of "coercive pressure," and there is a possibility that tensions will escalate after the midterm elections on November 3. Security observers believe that the likelihood of a large-scale invasion during this period is low, but a "real dangerous window" will open after the elections.
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