Wealthy countries are facing the forecast that the economic and health impacts of COVID-19 will last for two decades. According to a report released today, increased consumption of tobacco, alcohol, and unhealthy food during the pandemic has added to the current problems of health and economic systems.
Inadequate Health Progress
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also points to disruptions in the care of individuals with chronic diseases in this report, emphasizing that these issues have placed significant pressure on government budgets. While various countries continue to grapple with the financial effects of COVID-19, the likelihood of another pandemic of similar magnitude in the next 25 years is estimated to be nearly 50 percent.
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Analysis of Economic and Health Impacts
This document, which examines the need for preparedness and response to pandemics, outlines the reasons for the necessity of early intervention to prevent the worst health and economic impacts. From 2020 to May 2023, nearly 7 million people lost their lives due to COVID-19, while the global economy shrank by nearly 4 percent in 2020 compared to the previous year, a decline comparable to the 2008 global financial crisis.
The authors of this report have modeled outbreaks of viruses similar to Ebola, avian influenza, influenza type A, coronaviruses, and measles to test health and economic systems. Without treatment or a vaccine, the probability of a 1 percent mortality rate in the event of an outbreak of a coronavirus-like virus exists, and over 5 percent in the case of an outbreak of a virus similar to influenza type A in the first nine months.
Economic and Social Consequences
The report also predicts that in the event of a similar outbreak to COVID-19, GDP could decrease by 2.7 percent, while this figure could reach 16.2 percent in the case of an outbreak of a virus similar to measles. The transportation and warehousing, manufacturing, and administrative and support services sectors will consistently be among the hardest-hit sectors of the economy.
For this reason, early public health measures such as hand washing, mask-wearing, and social distancing are essential to save lives and economic activities, reducing the need for more severe measures in the future.
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