Saudi Arabia is currently affected by the increasing conflicts on its southern border with Yemen, where Iranian-backed Houthis are fighting against Yemeni government forces supported by Saudi Arabia. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia left another 13 injured on Monday night, bringing the total number of injuries since the escalation of hostilities in July to around 100.
Economic and Security Impacts
In July, the Houthis blocked Saudi oil shipments in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a key route for Saudi oil exports. This action comes as Saudi Arabia seeks alternative routes for its oil exports following Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia was also attacked by Iranian-affiliated militants in Iraq. Officials stated that repairs to this 1,200-kilometer pipeline may take several weeks.
Political and Social Challenges
Neil Quilliam, a researcher at the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, pointed out the serious challenges facing Saudi Arabia, stating: "Saudi Arabia is facing a real dilemma. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is trying to maintain both the security and economic development of Saudi Arabia simultaneously. But the difficulty is that the Houthis are increasingly capable of threatening both." Saudi Arabia has one of the most armed and advanced militaries in the Middle East, especially in military aviation and air defense, but the country refrains from entering an expensive military campaign in Yemen.
A military coalition led by Saudi Arabia has been at war since 2015 to support the Yemeni government against the Houthi rebels. After seven years of intense fighting, the conflict decreased in 2022 with a UN-mediated ceasefire. The latest Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government aim to pressure Saudi Arabia to end the air and sea blockades on Houthi-controlled areas, which have not yet been fully lifted.
Sebastian Sons, a Middle East observer at the German Institute for Middle East Studies, noted the complexity of Saudi Arabia's situation, saying: "On one hand, Saudi Arabia must show the Houthis that a red line has been crossed and a military response must be provided, especially in coordination with the recognized Yemeni government. But on the other hand, it also needs to maintain communication lines to return to the negotiating table and reduce tensions." According to him, Saudi Arabia's goal is to maintain a balance between deterrence and diplomacy.
Following the Houthis' advances in southern Yemen, including the capture of port cities and the island of Perim in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, these rebels can now exert more pressure on global oil supply. This strategy could bring more credibility to Iran in its war against the United States. According to maritime data, only 21 cargo ships passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Monday, while before the crisis, this strait managed about 30% of global container traffic.
The current state of the conflict reveals a new level of vulnerability for Saudi Arabia. The country is under pressure from all sides. While Saudi Arabia is a close ally of the United States, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman contacted the U.S. President last week and requested military assistance to counter the advancing Houthis. Additionally, Mohammed bin Salman faces increasing domestic pressures for economic progress. The Saudi population expects economic advancement that includes affordable housing, jobs, and protection from additional attacks from Yemen.
Moreover, Saudi Arabia needs stability to continue its costly Vision 2030 reforms. This plan includes reducing the country's dependence on oil and economic and social transformation, but foreign investment, tourism, and investor confidence depend on a stable security situation. Other significant planned events in Saudi Arabia, such as Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup, also depend on geopolitical stability.
As security threats increase and economic pressures mount, human rights observers say that Saudi officials have become more sensitive to criticisms of crisis management. Yahya al-Asiri, founder of the Saudi human rights organization ALQST, pointed to the intensification of the crackdown on freedom of expression in Saudi Arabia, stating: "Since Mohammed bin Salman came to power, there has been a strong crackdown on criticisms of Saudi foreign policy." He added that critics and peace advocates are severely dealt with and face heavy penalties under the country's anti-terrorism laws.
