India is experiencing its weakest monsoon season since 2009, with reduced rainfall due to the strengthening of El Niño, raising concerns about food production and rising prices.
Reduction in Rainfall and Its Effects
According to reports from the India Meteorological Department, cumulative rainfall during the monsoon season from June to September has been 15 percent below the long-term average so far. Initial forecasts in May indicated only a 10 percent reduction in rainfall. If this trend continues, this year's monsoon season will be the weakest experienced since 2009, when rainfall was 18 percent below normal.
Economic and Agricultural Consequences
The lack of rainfall not only affects current harvests but also puts pressure on future planting cycles. This shortfall impacts food prices, which have already been rising for seven consecutive months. Reports indicate that food inflation reached 5.95 percent in August, the highest level this year.
In light of these conditions, the Indian government has taken measures to assist farmers, including allowing duty-free imports of sugar and selling subsidized onions in some states. Additionally, the planting of rice, sugarcane, and corn has lagged behind last year.
Future Predictions
Some experts predict that a tropical storm may form in the Bay of Bengal in the last week of September, which could alleviate the rainfall deficit in eastern and northeastern India. However, this storm is unlikely to have a significant impact on the overall rainfall picture, and the rainfall deficit is expected to ultimately remain between 13 to 16 percent.
Overall, the current state of India's monsoon has raised significant concerns for farmers and consumers, highlighting the urgent need for attention to manage the food crisis.
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