Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the far-right party (RN), has been introduced as the frontrunner towards the second round of the 2027 presidential elections in France, having garnered 30 to 31 percent of voting intentions in a recent poll. The competition for second place in this election is very tight between Édouard Philippe from the Horizons party and Jean-Luc Mélenchon from the La France Insoumise (LFI) party.
Poll and Its Results
This poll, conducted exclusively by Cluster 17 on September 15 and 16, shows that in an initial scenario, Édouard Philippe represents the center-right alone, securing 19 percent of voting intentions. This figure is equal to the voting intentions of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which has seen a slight increase compared to the average polls in September. In this scenario, Raphaël Glucksmann, representing the Social Democrats, also captures 12 percent of voting intentions.
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Different Scenarios and Varied Results
If Édouard Philippe withdraws from the race and Gabriel Attal (from the Renaissance party) enters the fray, Mélenchon would easily advance to the second round with 20 percent of voting intentions, while Raphaël Glucksmann would secure 14 percent. In this case, Gabriel Attal would also gain 13.5 percent of voting intentions. Raphaël Glucksmann, who is currently gaining attention in the Socialist primary races, has managed to remain competitive in these tough contests and even experience slight growth, but it seems unlikely that he will secure a ticket to the final round at this stage.
Bruno Retailleau, the head of the Republicans party, despite numerous efforts in recent months, has yet to attract the necessary attention, with his voting intentions fluctuating between 7.5 to 9.5 percent. Additionally, several other candidates have also been considered in this poll, including Éric Zemmour, Marie Tondelier, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, and Fabien Roussel, each capturing between 2.5 to 3.5 percent of voting intentions.
This poll includes 1,943 registered voters and is based on a representative sample of the French population consisting of 2,045 individuals over 18 years old. The margin of error in this poll is estimated to be between 1.2 to 2.7 percent.
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