Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader, warned that the energy crisis resulting from the Middle East war has now turned into a shipping crisis, with a shortage of tankers complicating the transportation of crude oil worldwide.
Shortage of Tankers and Rising Transportation Costs
Hardy pointed out the increase in oil exports from the Gulf and stated that the number of available tankers for moving shipments is insufficient. This issue has significantly raised transportation costs, and market participants can no longer accurately predict the final cost of transporting oil.
In the past 7 to 10 days, approximately 12 million barrels of crude oil and 2 million barrels of petroleum products have been exported daily from the Middle East. Hardy emphasized that continuing this flow is essential to prevent a sharp price spike.
$200 Oil Scenario and Pressure on Refineries
The CEO of Vitol also warned that if this flow stops, the $200 oil scenario could materialize. He pointed to a significant reduction in oil reserves in Western countries and stated that the market is facing limited safety margins as it enters the winter season.
The shipping crisis has also put pressure on European refineries. The increase in oil transportation costs has caused the profit margins of some European refineries to turn negative, while U.S. refineries still maintain higher profit margins.
Hardy, referring to the security risks for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, mentioned that these tankers sometimes have to transfer their cargo to another ship in the Sea of Oman after passing through this route. This method takes a lot of time and reduces the effective capacity of the tanker fleet.
According to the CEO of Vitol, Middle Eastern oil exports to Asia are currently very important for winter fuel supply. However, he noted that there is no immediate solution to the tanker shortage problem, and continued disruptions could put more pressure on the global oil and petroleum products market.
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