The results of the recent elections in Israel and the political efforts to form a new government have raised many questions about the future of this country's relations with its Arab neighbors. While Israeli politicians are negotiating to form a coalition, political reactions from neighboring Arab countries have been somewhat limited and unlikely.
Continuation of the Status Quo
The question now is whether the new Israeli government under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu, the current prime minister, will continue current policies or whether a new government led by Netanyahu's rivals will adopt a milder approach. However, there is consensus that major changes in Israel's relations with neighboring countries such as Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt seem unlikely.
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Arab Positions and the Palestinian Situation
Some analysts believe that both Netanyahu and his rival, Gadi Eisenkot, are actually two sides of the same coin and neither will bring about significant changes in Israel's foreign policies towards the Palestinians. Mustafa Bakri, an Egyptian politician, wrote about this: "The Arabs' joy at Netanyahu's near failure to form a government does not mean that the future will be significantly different from the past."
According to Beth Oppenheim, a researcher at the Middle East and North Africa program of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the Eisenkot government may be politically weak, which could create limitations for its political maneuvers. She also added that major changes in this government's foreign policy are unlikely, and the general principles of Netanyahu's security policy will continue to be supported by most Jewish parties in Israel following the October 7 attack.
Future Challenges
The recent elections also showed that support for the establishment of a Palestinian state among most Jewish parties has significantly decreased, and Israel's permanent control over the Palestinians has become normalized. Eisenkot has also recently stated that "there is no Palestinian state, and no state will be formed under our leadership."
Analysts believe that the new government may collaborate with leftist parties that have previously supported a two-state solution. It seems that these new coalitions will also need support from Arab parties in the Knesset, which now have about 19 seats.
However, it is expected that the new government will only be able to reduce the intensity of Israeli actions in the occupied territories, and there is a possibility that a less extremist government could create a more favorable environment for diplomacy with Arab countries. Recent surveys indicate that Saudi Arabia's conditions for normalizing relations with Israel have become stricter, and this country emphasizes progress in the Palestinian state issue.
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