The war in the Tigray region of Ethiopia has resumed. Tigrayan forces launched a major offensive on September 23, with clashes also reported in the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions.
The Risk of Losing Peace
This escalation of tensions poses a threat to the fragile peace established by the Pretoria peace agreement in 2022. This agreement ended the previous war between the Federal Government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). However, the main question goes beyond the return of war to Tigray: Could this conflict be linked to the existing wars and rivalries in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea?
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International Concerns
Martin Plaut, a British journalist and Horn of Africa expert, warns that this conflict could extend beyond Ethiopia's borders. He believes that if the war goes in this direction, there is a possibility of Eritrean and Ethiopian forces clashing with Sudanese forces, which could drag the entire region into war.
The African Union has also expressed deep concern over the potential escalation of insecurity and has called for an immediate end to actions that could heighten tensions. The Union has also requested direct negotiations based on the Pretoria agreement and caution from Ethiopia's neighbors.
Economic and Security Implications
The clashes in the Afar region, located in northeastern Ethiopia and close to Eritrea and Djibouti, are particularly significant. This area includes the main transit corridor connecting Ethiopia to Djibouti, and any sustained conflict here could damage Ethiopia's vital economic pipeline.
In the Tigray War from 2020 to 2022, Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces against the TPLF. Since then, relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara, the capital of Eritrea, have soured. Ethiopia has also accused Eritrea of supporting armed groups opposed to the government.
If Ethiopia and Eritrea enter direct conflict, opposition forces in Sudan may take advantage of this new situation. The conflict could put additional pressure on Sudan's eastern border and alter supply routes and military calculations.
However, all of this does not mean that a regional war is inevitable. There is no evidence of a unified military alliance from Tigray to the Gulf, and Ethiopia's armed groups have conflicting interests.
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