Conflicts in the Tigray region of Ethiopia have intensified since September 23, and Tigray forces have captured three local airports. The fighting has spread to neighboring Afar and Amhara regions as well.
A New Challenge for the Peace Agreement
Both sides accuse each other of starting the conflicts. These new clashes pose a serious challenge to the Pretoria peace agreement of 2022, which had ended the previous Tigray war.
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Meanwhile, Eritrea has taken on a vital role. Martin Plaut, a British journalist specializing in the Horn of Africa, has noted that the United States needs Eritrea to secure the Red Sea against the Houthis, a Shiite militia group supported by Iran.
Strategic Developments in the Region
Plaut believes that lifting sanctions would give the regime of one of Africa's most repressive countries new political weight. As conflicts in Tigray have resumed, Eritrea may once again become a decisive military player. He warns that current tensions could escalate into a broader regional confrontation.
In recent days, the United States has removed some key Eritrean entities and individuals from its sanctions list. These developments coincide with the rising conflicts in Tigray and mutual accusations between Tigray forces and the Ethiopian government.
In this context, Eritrea, which controls long coastlines opposite Yemen and has its southern port of Assab near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, may become a strategic partner for the United States under current conditions. Given the critical situation in the Middle East and existing tensions in the Red Sea, Eritrea could exploit this situation.
Although Eritrea is one of the most repressive governments in the world and has not held any elections since its independence in 1993, during the previous Tigray war, Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces. However, relations between Abiy and Afwerki have severely soured.
Ultimately, while it remains unclear whether the U.S. decision to lift sanctions is meant to encourage Eritrea to intervene militarily in Ethiopia, if the conflicts escalate, Eritrea may decide to intervene due to its security interests.
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