Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany, is facing serious questions this week regarding the support of his party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and his coalition partners, the Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Will he be dismissed due to his sharply declining popularity?
Severe Decline in Support for Merz
Recent results from the "Deutschlandtrend" survey conducted by the Infratest dimap institute show that only 13 percent of respondents are satisfied with Merz's performance. This survey was conducted in early September and indicates a severe decline in public support for the Chancellor.
In early September, the CDU suffered a heavy defeat in the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament elections, with results halving. This outcome has intensified criticism of Merz, even from within his party, due to his communication style, which often leads to audience disinterest.
Options Available to Merz
Merz remains as Chancellor, but what are his options for changing the situation? The German Constitution, known as the Basic Law, considers the position of Chancellor strong, and his dismissal is not easily achievable. Merz can resign from his position for any reason, which does not necessarily lead to the end of the coalition he leads.
For example, in May 1974, Willy Brandt, the then Chancellor from the SPD, resigned after discovering a spy from East Germany in his inner circle. The ruling parties, SPD and the Free Democrats (FDP), quickly agreed to continue their coalition. Just 10 days later, Helmut Schmidt, the finance minister from the SPD, was elected as the new Chancellor.
For this to happen, an absolute majority of representatives in the Bundestag (lower house) was required. This majority is called the "Chancellor's majority." Schmidt easily obtained this majority and remained as the leader of the German government for 8 years.
The likelihood of Merz resigning seems low. He is clearly determined not to step down. If a new majority is formed through new coalitions in the Bundestag, or if a Chancellor falls sharply in popularity, the possibility of using a "constructive vote of no confidence" will arise. This means that a majority of representatives vote in favor of a new candidate for the Chancellorship.
The likelihood of this scenario occurring regarding Merz is very low. The conservatives and social democrats do not want to end their coalition, and there is no clear rival candidate for Merz. Hendrik Wüst, the Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia from the CDU, is seen as a possible successor, but he has not yet taken any steps.
The German parliament cannot simply dissolve itself and hold new elections. Representatives can request a vote of confidence on the Chancellor and his government. Several Chancellors have used this mechanism and linked it to controversial issues.
However, Merz has stated that he currently sees no reason to request a vote of confidence, and there are also no signs of major movements from his coalition members in parliament. If the Chancellor loses a vote of confidence, this could lead to the dissolution of parliament and the holding of new elections.
It seems that Merz has rejected this option. Neither the SPD nor the conservative union (CDU/CSU) are interested in holding new elections when their popularity is low.
Will the situation remain the same? For now, it seems so. However, the situation in political circles in Berlin has been very dynamic in recent days, and nothing should be ruled out.
