Recent clashes in northern Ethiopia have escalated sharply due to the formation of a new coalition of several militias. This coalition, which calls itself the "Ethiopian People's Forces for Survival," includes seven internal armed groups that are protesting against the federal government of Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia.
The role of neighboring countries in the conflicts
The Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) have accused this coalition of being supported by Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt. The Chief of Staff of the ENDF, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, has made these accusations, while Sudan has dismissed this claim as baseless. The Sudanese military government has also accused Ethiopia of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which are engaged in conflict with the Sudanese army.
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While Ethiopia is embroiled in internal conflicts, these tensions also have political and external dimensions, with some experts believing that these clashes could ignite tensions in the Horn of Africa. Susan Stohler, head of the Ethiopia office at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Germany, believes that with rising tensions, these conflicts could lead to a larger conflagration in the region.
Historical ties and regional tensions
Sudan has been embroiled in a brutal civil war since April 2023, and both sides of this conflict—the Sudanese army and the RSF—are linked to various partners currently fighting in Ethiopia. Meanwhile, the Sudanese government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which suffered a severe defeat in the Tigray war of 2020-2022, are on opposite sides.
On the other hand, the central government of Ethiopia and the RSF are also connected. A Reuters report in February 2022 referred to a secret training camp for RSF forces in the Ethiopian border region, where the United Arab Emirates played a significant role in training and financial support. Currently, there are no signs of direct involvement by the Sudanese army or RSF in the Ethiopian conflicts.
New divisions and recent developments in Ethiopia could have deeper impacts on the country's relations with its neighbors. Eritrea, which previously sided with Abiy Ahmed's forces during the Tigray war, is now embroiled in political disputes. Experts believe that Eritrea may use the TPLF to mitigate potential risks for Ethiopia regarding access to the sea.
As the U.S. and European countries pay less attention to the Horn of Africa due to the Ukraine war, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are pursuing their interests in the region. This situation could, in turn, lead to increased tensions and conflicts in the area.
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