New trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States will be held on Tuesday and Wednesday in Abu Dhabi. These negotiations come after previous unsuccessful attempts for peace that took place in January and February. The main goal of these talks is to discuss post-war security arrangements, reduce tensions, humanitarian efforts, and the next steps towards achieving peace.
Main Topics of Negotiation
Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, has identified key topics of the negotiations to include security guarantees, an energy ceasefire, unblocking the Black Sea, prisoner exchanges, and preparations for a meeting of the leaders of Ukraine, the United States, and Russia. David Arakhamia, Ukraine's representative in these talks, noted the lack of expectation for quick progress in the discussions, stating, "The mere fact that trilateral talks have resumed can be considered a success."
Composition of Negotiating Delegations
The Kremlin has sent Vladimir Medinsky, an advisor to the President of Russia, as the head of the negotiating delegation to Abu Dhabi. This delegation includes senior military and intelligence officials from Russia. The Ukrainian delegation is led by Rustem Umerov, the head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, and Arakhamia. Additionally, the delegations will engage in separate discussions alongside representatives from several European countries.
These representatives include Gunter Sauder, foreign policy advisor to the Chancellor of Germany, Emmanuel Bonne, head of the Élysée diplomatic service, Jonathan Powell, national security advisor of the United Kingdom, and Fabrizio Sagio, diplomatic advisor to the Prime Minister of Italy. Also, Bjorn Seibert, head of the office of the President of the European Commission, and Jeffrey Van Leeuwen, head of the office of the NATO Secretary General, will also participate in these negotiations.
Outlook of the Talks and Challenges
However, there are ambiguities regarding the role of European representatives in the negotiations. Hanna Shelest, director of security studies at the Ukrainian Foreign Policy Network, believes that European representatives will play a supervisory role at best. She added that so far, Russia has shown reluctance to include European representatives in the talks and has sought to maintain the discussions as a matter between two superpowers, namely Russia and the United States.
Shelest also pointed out that past experience has shown that when Medinsky is in charge of negotiations, the main goal is to demonstrate Russia's willingness to talk, but in reality, no agreement will be reached. According to her, there may be discussions in these negotiations about prisoner exchanges or humanitarian pauses in villages near Olshansky, a city in the occupied Kherson region.
Nevertheless, Shelest expressed skepticism about the tangible outcomes of these negotiations, believing that Russia may use these talks for stalling. She added that last week, Donald Trump spoke about a "beautiful big deal" that might include all of Europe.
Conclusion
While some positive signals have emerged from Russia, experts emphasize that unrealistic expectations should not be held regarding the outcomes of these talks. Overall, the negotiations in Abu Dhabi could provide an opportunity to address humanitarian and security issues, but real progress seems unlikely.
