The Polish government led by Donald Tusk warned about the possibility of Russian air and missile attacks on countries supporting Ukraine in the fall and winter months. Tusk stated in the parliament of this country that intelligence assessments from NATO, Ukraine, and Poland indicate that the "likely scenario for the coming months" is that Russia will intensify its attacks against Ukraine and its allies, including Poland.
Russia's Goals for the Attacks
Tusk said that Russia's goal is to "weaken NATO's cohesion" and to convince its members that "Article 5 seems more theoretical than practical." According to NATO's Article 5, an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all members. Tusk emphasized that Russia's hybrid and espionage attacks have tested the limits of what constitutes an armed attack.
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Risk of Accidental Attacks
Tusk warned that "there is a real risk that drones or other types of missiles may enter the territory of one or several NATO countries in the eastern flank and cause damage. The official narrative will be that this was an accident and there is no reason to consider any NATO response." He also pointed to existing concerns, stating that "not all politicians in the West, in the United States or Europe, are thinking about how to defend Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia."
Tusk also noted that some politicians and political groups in Europe are "just waiting for an excuse" to declare that "we are not going to die for Poland, Latvia, or Lithuania" in the event of a conflict.
This warning comes as Tusk stated that the fall and winter months may be "tragically critical" for Ukraine, and it is expected that Russia will continue its sustained and intensified attacks on major Ukrainian cities and target the logistical infrastructure essential for the country's defense.
Russian attacks have intensified in recent weeks and have spread to western Ukraine near the Polish border, while Russia has increased its use of jet-powered drones, and Ukraine has struggled to counter them.
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