Friedrich Merz, the Chancellor of Germany, is facing the threat of dismissal this week, just 16 months after taking office and promising extensive reforms and a revival of Germany's leadership in Europe. Ahead of two key state elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin on Sunday, where his right-wing party, the Christian Democratic Union, is at risk of painful defeats, senior party members are privately discussing the need for a change in chancellorship.
Severe Decline in Merz's Popularity
Merz's national popularity has dramatically fallen to 14 percent, and a new poll shows that the conservative CDU/CSU coalition has dropped to its lowest level at 18 percent. Meanwhile, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) leads with 29 percent. This party also recently topped a state election in Saxony-Anhalt, coming close to achieving an absolute majority, while Merz's party lost more than half of its voter support.
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Analysis of Possible Scenarios
The two upcoming elections could impact Merz's political fate. He has arranged a crucial meeting with his party leaders on Sunday at 5 PM, coinciding with the exit polls for the state elections at 6 PM. Merz intends to ask his party members whether they still support him and his reform plans. If the answer is negative, he wants them to suggest a potential successor.
If there is a complete failure in the elections on Sunday, intra-party pressure may peak, and calls for his resignation could increase. If the elections turn into a disaster for the conservatives, the party may even struggle to clear the 5 percent threshold to enter the parliament in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
Friedrich Merz could also request a vote of confidence to demonstrate that he still has sufficient support from the coalition, or otherwise open the doors to early elections. This scenario has occurred in the past, most recently with Olaf Scholz in December 2024.
Given that the AfD's popularity is high in the polls, both the CDU and SPD are currently reluctant to hold new elections, as this could be detrimental to both parties. Additionally, there is a possibility of electing a new chancellor within the next 21 days if a quick majority for a successor is found.
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