The early elections in Spain could have serious consequences for the political balance of the European Union. If Pedro Sánchez, the current Prime Minister and the only leftist leader of a major EU country, is defeated, the Socialist and Democratic parties in Brussels will face new challenges. Sánchez has acted as a balancing force in the European Council, where decisions are increasingly controlled by right-wing parties.
Consequences of a Government Change in Madrid
Sánchez has been able to steer Spanish representatives in the European Parliament towards his positions through his agreements in the European Council. However, a change of government in Madrid could disrupt these arrangements. Polls indicate a possibility of a government led by the right-wing People's Party, which may collaborate with the far-right Vox party. This change could result in leftist parties in Brussels facing more serious challenges.
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Impact on Political Alliances in Brussels
According to some senior representatives of the Socialist and Democrats (S&D) party, Sánchez has contributed to the balance of decision-making at the leadership level. His absence could lead to instability in the informal alliance of Socialist, Liberal, and European People's Party members. One S&D representative noted that if the positions taken by the leadership shift to the right, leftist parties will be less inclined to participate in this ruling majority.
The S&D party in Brussels has gradually lost its position, and this trend is expected to continue in light of the 2024 election results. With Sánchez's removal, the only remaining leftist leaders will be Mette Frederiksen from Denmark and Robert Abela from Malta.
The Spanish elections will act as a precursor to a tumultuous year for significant votes in other major EU countries like Italy, Poland, and France. In these other countries, right-wing forces are also on the rise, which could lead to increased pressure on leftist parties in Brussels.
On the other hand, the Spanish elections will influence negotiations regarding the next seven-year EU budget. European Commission officials have warned that these elections may overshadow the negotiation process and lead to further tensions in budget discussions.
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